Kravitz's This Old Stat

Listening to the Kravitz and Eddie Show on WFNI 1070 AM [A painful duty, but I was unable to listen to my usual The Zone on XL-950 at the time, but it gives me stuff I can put on here!] I had tuned in as they were discussing the NFL overtime rules and the coin toss. Bob Kravitz feels that since the winner of the coin toss in overtime has only won 52% of the time, that is not a significant enough difference to require any changes.

Well, Bobbo, you are correct (amazingly) that the coin toss winner has only won 52% of the time. However, that covers the time period from the inception of overtime in 1974 through 2003. Since the NFL moved the kickoff back to the 30-yard line in 1994, things have changed, more than just a little.

Looking at the NFL overtime games from 2000 to 2007, the winner of the coin toss has won 60% of the games. In addition to that, out of the 124 overtime games in that time frame, 37 were won on the opening drive in overtime without the opponent touching the ball. That's 30% of the games. So nearly 1 in 3 overtime games end up like the Colts-Chargers playoff game where once you lost the coin toss, you were essentially hosed.

Bob, I think you need to update yourself on some stats...in addition to a few other things. I imagine you are a batting average and wins kind of baseball idiot person and statistics like VORP, OBP and BABIP are just made up stats by geeks like us, huh?

It is definitely time the NFL do something about overtimes. What that should be is a matter of debate. One I'm sure will be represented on this site. Yet, something does need to be done.

Now if we could only do something about Kravitz...

Using Stats To Confirm What We Already Know

Sorry for the lack of posts lately--it's been a very busy time here for everyone at LomHenn.com. Of course you already know about the birth of Hildegard Bembledack, which has kept Zinglebert busy. I've taken an extra part-time job at a kanuter valve plant in Oolitic, Indiana. Kringlebert has had an extra project thrown on him at work that involves replacing dirty-bomb components with used pinball machine parts. Oswald is doing only God-knows what. And as Lom Henn is a millionaire playboy author/celebrity gynecologist, he is jet-setting and isn't around to post very often.

But enough excuses...now on with the countdown!

Colts stats worst in Dungy era
Stats reveal why Colts have stumbled to 3-3 start this season

As you probably know, the Indianapolis Colts are 3-3. Of course, no one can just say that right now--what they say is that the Colts are 3-3, but could easily be 1-5. This due to the 4th quarter combacks against Minnesota and Houston.

They could also be 6-0, if they tackled better and had scored more points in the games they lost. But I digress.

Mike Chappel's article doesn't really have any big problems in it. Even though the headline indicates the article will talk about statistics, there aren't many included. The article focuses more on the fact that this is the worst start for the Colts since Tony Dungy arrived and that the upcoming Monday night game against Tennessee is a "must-win."

Here is the graphic that ran with this story in the newspaper. Basically, it shows that the Colts are 3-3, which is their worst record after 6 games in the Dungy era. As a reasonable person might expect, each of the statistical columns included on the graph show this year's Colts are not very good compared to Colts' teams of the last few seasons. However, this year's team is not the worst in every category.

So what does this story tell us that we didn't already know? The Colts are 3-3. Going backwards, the Colts were 6-0, 6-0, 6-0, 4-2, 5-1, and 4-2. Do we need a statistical analysis to show that this year's team is worse than the others? Basically, the Colts aren't scoring as much as in the past and they are allowing more points than they did in previous years. But their stats are pretty typical for a 3-3 team.

This article is merely another attempt to answer the question a lot of people have been asking thus far: what's wrong with the Colts? The simple answer is just that they haven't been playing very well. And the best stat that indicates this is the only stat that matters: 3-3.