Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Using Stats To Confirm What We Already Know

Sorry for the lack of posts lately--it's been a very busy time here for everyone at LomHenn.com. Of course you already know about the birth of Hildegard Bembledack, which has kept Zinglebert busy. I've taken an extra part-time job at a kanuter valve plant in Oolitic, Indiana. Kringlebert has had an extra project thrown on him at work that involves replacing dirty-bomb components with used pinball machine parts. Oswald is doing only God-knows what. And as Lom Henn is a millionaire playboy author/celebrity gynecologist, he is jet-setting and isn't around to post very often.

But enough excuses...now on with the countdown!

Colts stats worst in Dungy era
Stats reveal why Colts have stumbled to 3-3 start this season


As you probably know, the Indianapolis Colts are 3-3. Of course, no one can just say that right now--what they say is that the Colts are 3-3, but could easily be 1-5. This due to the 4th quarter combacks against Minnesota and Houston.

They could also be 6-0, if they tackled better and had scored more points in the games they lost. But I digress.

Mike Chappel's article doesn't really have any big problems in it. Even though the headline indicates the article will talk about statistics, there aren't many included. The article focuses more on the fact that this is the worst start for the Colts since Tony Dungy arrived and that the upcoming Monday night game against Tennessee is a "must-win."

Here is the graphic that ran with this story in the newspaper. Basically, it shows that the Colts are 3-3, which is their worst record after 6 games in the Dungy era. As a reasonable person might expect, each of the statistical columns included on the graph show this year's Colts are not very good compared to Colts' teams of the last few seasons. However, this year's team is not the worst in every category.

So what does this story tell us that we didn't already know? The Colts are 3-3. Going backwards, the Colts were 6-0, 6-0, 6-0, 4-2, 5-1, and 4-2. Do we need a statistical analysis to show that this year's team is worse than the others? Basically, the Colts aren't scoring as much as in the past and they are allowing more points than they did in previous years. But their stats are pretty typical for a 3-3 team.

This article is merely another attempt to answer the question a lot of people have been asking thus far: what's wrong with the Colts? The simple answer is just that they haven't been playing very well. And the best stat that indicates this is the only stat that matters: 3-3.

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3 Comments:

Blogger Zinglebert Bembledack said...

What's wrong with the Colts? Honestly, everything. However, before everyone jumps all over me, it is not as bad as it seems. While I feel there are problems with every aspect of the Colts, several areas really only need minor tweeks.

The O-line needs to get fully healthy and stablized. We have been going with the pluck-and-stuff method for several weeks by plucking a healthy rookie and stuffing him in an injured players position. If we can stablize the O-line then Peyton may actually have time to make a pass longer than 5 yards and actually establish a running game. If the O-line can progress then I think the rest of the offense will return to normal.

The defense just seems lost and lethargic most of the time. I'm bewildered at how the Colts can come out and fly aroudn the field against the Ravens and then look like they have lead feet and jelly arms against the Packers. I know the Packers game was on the road, but the let down was simply atrocious.

I will say Adam Vinatieri's kickoffs have been better versus last year, but his field goal kicking let me believe his Colts days may be numbered. The rest of the special teams are just as "Jekyl and Hyde"-ish as the rest of the team. They can make an excellent stop on a returner but then get called for a penalty nowhere near the ball.

I do not think that Tony Dungy has started coasting towards retirement, but I have been left scratching my head at some of the calls by the rest of his staff.

If the Colts were 4-2 and the Flaming Thumbtacks were not 6-0, I would be interested to see what everyone would be saying about the Colts.

Unless the team wakes up and realizes we are way past the preseason, we will stumble our way to an 8-8 season. At this point I think that 10-6 will have a good shot at the Wild Card. Going 7-3 over the rest of the season is not that much of a stretch, but the Colts have to actually play like they want it.

October 23, 2008 at 11:31 AM  
Blogger Henn Mother said...

...and good old Henn Mother is left to shovel the rotting food, mal-used laundry, and other unmentionable "bits" into neat piles that the boys can sort through when they finally come home.

Foosball is the Devil, Bobby Boucher!

October 23, 2008 at 11:55 AM  
Blogger Slut Bunwalla said...

Poor, unappreciated Henn Mother. By the way, thanks for ironing my kanuter-valve factory uniform for me.

October 23, 2008 at 8:07 PM  

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